The construction of confidence intervals for the mean of a bounded random variable is a classical problem in statistics with numerous applications in machine learning and virtually all scientific fields. In particular, obtaining the tightest possible confidence intervals is vital every time the sampling of the random variables is expensive. The current state-of-the-art method to construct confidence intervals is by using betting algorithms. This is a very successful approach for deriving optimal confidence sequences, even matching the rate of law of iterated logarithms. However, in the fixed horizon setting, these approaches are either sub-optimal or based on heuristic solutions with strong empirical performance but without a finite-time guarantee.

A generalizable reward model is crucial in Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) as it enables correctly evaluating unseen prompt-response pairs. However, existing reward models can lack this ability, as they are typically trained by increasing the reward gap between the chosen and rejected responses, while overlooking the prompts that the responses are conditioned on. Consequently, when the trained reward model is evaluated on prompt-response pairs that lie outside the data distribution, neglecting the effect of prompts may result in poor generalization of the reward model. To address this issue, we decompose the reward value into two independent components: prompt-free reward and prompt-related reward. Prompt-free reward represents the evaluation that is determined only by responses, while the prompt-related reward reflects the reward that derives from both the prompt and the response. We extract these two components from an information-theoretic perspective, which requires no extra models. Subsequently, we propose a new reward learning algorithm by prioritizing data samples based on their prompt-free reward values. Through toy examples, we demonstrate that the extracted prompt-free and prompt-related rewards effectively characterize the two parts of the reward value. Further, standard evaluations show that our method improves both the alignment performance and the generalization capability of the reward model.

We consider the concentration properties of functions of infinitely exchangeable random variables. By conditioning on the de Finetti directing measure, we show that the deviation of any function with bounded-difference constants $c_1, \dots, c_n$ decomposes into a conditional sampling fluctuation and a latent mixture fluctuation. When this latent mixture is $σ_{\mathrm{mix}}^2$-subgaussian, we establish a concentration inequality with an effective variance proxy of $\frac{1}{4}\sum_i c_i^2 + σ_{\mathrm{mix}}^2$. Crucially, we demonstrate that for zero-sum linear contrasts, such as the difference between a subsample mean and a full population mean, the latent mixture term cancels exactly. This cancellation yields a tight, mixture-free Hoeffding-type bound that provides a direct de Finetti mechanism for the infinite-extendibility limit of recent finite-exchangeable concentration results. We apply this framework to quantify uncertainty in composite AI benchmarks, such as MMLU, where question items naturally exhibit exchangeable dependence across domains. Our results provide both a domain-stratified hierarchical model for bounding the uncertainty of accuracy scores, and a distribution-free, cost-saving statistical guarantee for accurately estimating full benchmark scores from random subsets.

In recent years, there has been much interest in understanding the generalization behavior of interpolating predictors, which overfit on noisy training data. Whereas standard analyses are concerned with whether a method is consistent or not, recent observations have shown that even inconsistent predictors can generalize well. In this work, we revisit the classic interpolating Nadaraya-Watson (NW) estimator (also known as Shepard's method), and study its generalization capabilities through this modern viewpoint. In particular, by varying a single bandwidth-like hyperparameter, we prove the existence of multiple overfitting behaviors, ranging non-monotonically from catastrophic, through benign, to tempered. Our results highlight how even classical interpolating methods can exhibit intricate generalization behaviors. In addition, for the purpose of tuning the hyperparameter, the results suggest that over-estimating the intrinsic dimension of the data is less harmful than under-estimating it. Numerical experiments complement our theory, demonstrating the same phenomena.

In this paper, we leverage stochastic projection and lossy compression to establish new conditional mutual information (CMI) bounds on the generalization error of statistical learning algorithms. It is shown that these bounds are generally tighter than the existing ones. In particular, we prove that for certain problem instances for which existing MI and CMI bounds were recently shown in Attias et al. [2024] and Livni [2023] to become vacuous or fail to describe the right generalization behavior, our bounds yield suitable generalization guarantees of the order of O(1/ n), where nis the size of the training dataset. Furthermore, we use our bounds to investigate the problem of data "memorization" raised in those works, and which asserts that there are learning problem instances for which any learning algorithm that has good prediction there exist distributions under which the algorithm must "memorize" a big fraction of the training dataset. We show that for every learning algorithm, there exists an auxiliary algorithm that does not memorize and which yields comparable generalization error for any data distribution. In part, this shows that memorization is not necessary for good generalization.

We study a relaxation of the problem of coupling probability distributions -- a list of samples is generated from one distribution and an accept is declared if any one of these samples is identical to the sample generated from the other distribution. We propose a novel method for generating samples, which extends the Gumbelmax sampling suggested in Daliri et al. [9] for coupling probability distributions. We also establish a corresponding lower bound on the acceptance probability, which we call the list matching lemma. We next discuss two applications of our setup. First, we develop a new mechanism for multi-draft speculative sampling that is simple to implement and achieves performance competitive with baselines such as SpecTr [38] and SpecInfer [34] across a range of language tasks. Our method also guarantees a certain degree of drafter invariance with respect to the output tokens which is not supported by existing schemes. We also provide a theoretical lower bound on the token level acceptance probability. As our second application, we consider distributed lossy compression with side information in a setting where a source sample is compressed and available to multiple decoders, each with independent side information. We propose a compression technique that is based on our generalization of Gumbel-max sampling and show that it provides significant gains in experiments involving synthetic Gaussian sources and the MNIST image dataset.

The construction of confidence intervals for the mean of a bounded random variable is a classical problem in statistics with numerous applications in machine learning and virtually all scientific fields. In particular, obtaining the tightest possible confidence intervals is vital every time the sampling of the random variables is expensive. The current state-of-the-art method to construct confidence intervals is by using betting algorithms. This is a very successful approach for deriving optimal confidence sequences, even matching the rate of law of iterated logarithms. However, in the fixed horizon setting, these approaches are either sub-optimal or based on heuristic solutions with strong empirical performance but without a finite-time guarantee. Hence, no betting-based algorithm guaranteeing the optimal $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\frac{\sigma^2\log\frac1\delta}{n}})$ width of the confidence intervals are known.

Linear structural causal models (SCMs) are used to analyze the relationships between random variables. Directed edges represent direct causal effects and bidirected edges represent hidden confounders. Generically identifying the causal parameters from observed correlations between the random variables is an open problem in causality. Gupta and Bl\aser solve the case of SCMs in which the directed edges form a tree by giving a randomized polynomial time algorithm with running time $O(n^6)$. We present an improved algorithm with running time $O(n^3 \log^2 n)$ and demonstrate its feasibility by providing an implementation that outperforms existing state-of-the-art implementations.

We argue that dependent versions of McDiarmid's inequality are a useful but underutilized tool in mathematical statistics, learning theory and theoretical computer science. To make this point, we first highlight that approximate tensorization of entropy (ATE) implies McDiarmid's via the Entropy Method. Second, we derive McDiarmid's inequality for non-isotropic Gaussian random vectors $X \sim \mathcal N(μ, Σ)$ through ATE with a constant of the order of the condition number of $Σ$. We both independently obtain this ATE through a simple application of stochastic localization and also discuss how a more general ATE for the Gibbs sampler due to Ascolani et al., 2026 generalizes McDiarmid's-like concentration to strongly log-concave and log-smooth probability measures. We then apply the resulting concentration inequalities to resolve a question on the concentration of $\operatorname{sign}(X)$ posed by Simone Bombari, investigate Erdős-Rényi graphs under dependence and prove a Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz-type inequality for observations from a joint measure fulfilling ATE and continuous marginal CDFs. For the class of strongly log-concave and log-smooth measures, this result improves upon a prior Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz-type inequality for non-i.i.d. observations due to Bobkov and Götze, 2010, by establishing the expected $1/\sqrt{n}$-rate of convergence under weak dependence instead of $n^{-1/3}$.

Covariance estimation yields a fundamental second-order statistic underlying representation learning, dimension reduction, and dependence modeling. While covariance has been well understood in Euclidean spaces, it is ill-defined for random objects residing on nonlinear Riemannian manifolds, which increasingly arise in modern machine learning applications involving shapes, symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrices, etc. This paper introduces an intrinsic Riemannian cross-covariance for manifold-valued random objects. Our approach defines covariance and correlation by transporting local variations to a common tangent space via parallel transport, yielding a second-order descriptor that is independent of arbitrary coordinate choices. We establish that the proposed covariance inherits desirable properties of its Euclidean counterparts and characterize its asymptotic behavior. Numerical studies on spheres and SPD manifolds, together with real-data experiments on heart valve shapes in Kendall's shape space, demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimators and verify the stated properties. Our results position the Riemannian covariance as a fundamental tool for second-order learning and analysis in non-Euclidean representation spaces.